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closure or conversion of the Marsden Point refinery

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Dear Nikki,

Thank you for your email and for indicating that the request, as originally framed, is likely to engage section 18(f) of the Official Information Act 1982.

I am willing to refine the request.

To assist your agency to process it, please treat this email as replacing the original request under section 15(1AA) of the Act.

Refined request

I now limit the request to the following single topic:

Treasury advice and analysis concerning the economic and fiscal risks arising from the closure or conversion of the Marsden Point refinery, and New Zealand’s increased reliance on imported refined fuel.

Please provide, for the period 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2024:

Treasury briefings, reports, aide-memoires, Cabinet advice, or internal advice that discuss:

the closure or conversion of the Marsden Point refinery;

the loss of domestic refining capacity;

reliance on imported refined fuel; and

economic, fiscal, supply chain, or resilience risks arising from those matters.

Any Treasury analysis, risk assessment, or modelling relating to:

 

fuel supply vulnerability;

economic resilience risks associated with imported fuel dependence;

inflationary, cost-of-living, business-cost, or wider macroeconomic impacts linked to the refinery closure or loss of domestic refining capacity; and

mitigation options considered by Treasury.

Any Treasury advice to Ministers or Cabinet on:

 

alternative options considered in response to refinery closure or fuel security concerns; and

risk mitigation strategies relevant to fuel supply resilience.

Any Treasury risk registers, fiscal risk reports, monitoring reports, or post-event review documents that specifically reference:

 

fuel supply security;

fuel market vulnerability; or

economic exposure arising from disruption to imported fuel supply.

 

To reduce scope further:

I do not require duplicates of material already publicly available.

I do not require routine administrative correspondence.

If necessary, the request may be limited to final versions of advice and reports only.

 

If any part of the refined request remains too broad, please identify the specific limb or category causing difficulty so that it may be narrowed further, rather than refusing the request in full.

If some information is more closely connected with the functions of another agency, please consider transfer under section 14 of the Act where appropriate.

Please provide the information electronically.

If any information is withheld, please specify:

the precise statutory ground relied upon; and

the public interest considerations taken into account.

 

Kind regards,

Tracy

 

On 20/04/2026 10:34 AM, Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY] wrote:
 

Good morning

 

On 9 April 2026, you emailed the Treasury requesting, under the Official Information Act 1982 (the Act), the following information:

 

1. Statutory and fiscal authority

 

Please identify:

    1.            The fiscal frameworks governing fuel taxation revenue

    2.            Treasury’s role in advising on fuel market economic policy

    3.            Any statutory frameworks governing fuel security financial risk

    4.            Treasury’s role in advising Cabinet on economic resilience relating to fuel supply

 

2. Decision advice relating to Marsden Point refinery closure

 

Please provide:

    1.            Treasury briefings relating to the refinery closure or conversion

    2.            Any economic risk assessments relating to loss of domestic refining capacity

    3.            Any advice regarding supply chain vulnerability

    4.            Any analysis of resilience risks from reliance on imported fuel

    5.            Any alternative options Treasury considered or analysed

 

3. Financial and economic impact analysis

 

Please provide:

    1.            Any modelling of fuel price impacts following refinery closure

    2.            Any analysis of inflationary impacts of fuel price increases

    3.            Any modelling of impacts on cost of living

    4.            Any modelling of impacts on business costs

    5.            Any analysis of macroeconomic risks relating to fuel dependency

 

4. Fuel taxation and government revenue effects

 

Please provide:

    1.            Any Treasury analysis of GST revenue increases resulting from fuel price increases

    2.            Any analysis of fuel excise revenue trends over time

    3.            Any modelling of how inflation increases tax revenue through GST

    4.            Any analysis of fiscal drag impacts on taxpayers

    5.            Any Treasury advice regarding tax relief options relating to fuel costs

 

5. Governance and risk oversight

 

Please provide:

    1.            Any fiscal risk reports referencing fuel supply security

    2.            Any risk registers referring to fuel market vulnerability

    3.            Any advice on economic exposure to supply disruptions

    4.            Any reports identifying economic risks to New Zealand from fuel import reliance

    5.            Any advice on mitigation strategies

 

The request for information is broad in scope and likely to be refused under section 18(f) of the Official Information Act, as substantial manual collation would be required to provide the information requested.

 

As such, I would like to suggest refining your request, so we are able to make the proper considerations on the information you are seeking. For example, by limiting your request to one topic.

 

To assist you in refining the scope of your request, there is some related publicly available information on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and the Treasury websites:

 

 

Please note that once you have amended or clarified your request, under section 15(1AA) of the OIA, the Treasury may treat your amended or clarified request as a new request that replaces the original request. This may lead to a new start of the statutory response period.

 

Kind regards

Nikki

 

Te Tai Ōhanga The Treasury 

Ministerial Advisory Service, Senior Ministerial Advisor 

Strategy and Executive Services, Enabling Services Group 

treasury.govt.nz | LinkedIn | Youtube 

 

 

[IN-CONFIDENCE]

                                                       

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b. any use, dissemination or copying of this email is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful.

 

 

From: F Q <[email protected]> 
Sent: Thursday, 9 April 2026 7:19 am
To: Ministerial Services Inbox [TSY] <[email protected]>
Cc: Records <[email protected]>
Subject: OIA Treasury – Fuel Pricing, Tax Revenue Effects and Economic Impact of Marsden Point Refinery Closure

 

 

Official Information Act Request

 

Treasury – Fuel Pricing, Tax Revenue Effects and Economic Impact of Marsden Point Refinery Closure

 

To: The Treasury

 

Subject: Official Information Act Request – Fuel Pricing Economic Impacts, Tax Revenue Effects and Fuel Security Financial Risk

 

Dear Sir/Madam,

 

This request is made pursuant to the Official Information Act 1982.

 

The purpose of this request is to understand the fiscal, economic, and governance considerations relating to fuel pricing in New Zealand, the economic impacts of fuel taxation, and any Treasury advice relating to the closure of the Marsden Point refinery and increased reliance on imported refined fuel.

 

This request relates to institutional decision-making and economic advice, not personal information.

 

1. Statutory and fiscal authority

 

Please identify:

   1.         The fiscal frameworks governing fuel taxation revenue

   2.         Treasury’s role in advising on fuel market economic policy

   3.         Any statutory frameworks governing fuel security financial risk

   4.         Treasury’s role in advising Cabinet on economic resilience relating to fuel supply

 

2. Decision advice relating to Marsden Point refinery closure

 

Please provide:

   1.         Treasury briefings relating to the refinery closure or conversion

   2.         Any economic risk assessments relating to loss of domestic refining capacity

   3.         Any advice regarding supply chain vulnerability

   4.         Any analysis of resilience risks from reliance on imported fuel

   5.         Any alternative options Treasury considered or analysed

 

3. Financial and economic impact analysis

 

Please provide:

   1.         Any modelling of fuel price impacts following refinery closure

   2.         Any analysis of inflationary impacts of fuel price increases

   3.         Any modelling of impacts on cost of living

   4.         Any modelling of impacts on business costs

   5.         Any analysis of macroeconomic risks relating to fuel dependency

 

4. Fuel taxation and government revenue effects

 

Please provide:

   1.         Any Treasury analysis of GST revenue increases resulting from fuel price increases

   2.         Any analysis of fuel excise revenue trends over time

   3.         Any modelling of how inflation increases tax revenue through GST

   4.         Any analysis of fiscal drag impacts on taxpayers

   5.         Any Treasury advice regarding tax relief options relating to fuel costs

 

5. Governance and risk oversight

 

Please provide:

   1.         Any fiscal risk reports referencing fuel supply security

   2.         Any risk registers referring to fuel market vulnerability

   3.         Any advice on economic exposure to supply disruptions

   4.         Any reports identifying economic risks to New Zealand from fuel import reliance

   5.         Any advice on mitigation strategies

 

6. Oversight and review

 

Please provide:

   1.         Any post-closure reviews relating to refinery impacts

   2.         Any Treasury monitoring reports relating to fuel market risks

   3.         Any lessons-learned reviews regarding fuel resilience policy

   4.         Any reports assessing whether fuel market changes increased economic vulnerability

 

7. Administrative safeguards

 

Please identify:

   1.         What fiscal safeguards exist to protect consumers from fuel price shocks

   2.         What economic safeguards exist to manage fuel supply risks

   3.         What review mechanisms exist if risks increase

   4.         What accountability mechanisms apply to Treasury economic advice

 

8. Format of response

 

Where possible please provide documents electronically.

 

If any information is withheld, please specify the grounds relied upon under the Official Information Act and the public interest considerations.

 

If any part of this request is considered too broad, I am willing to refine scope.

 

Kind regards

Tracy